Carl Lutz Lecture: Perspectives on the war in Ukraine and the future of the European security order »
The future of Europe’s security order depends in large part on the outcome of the war in Ukraine. Thus far, Western political discourse has mostly framed the situation through a binary lens: either the rules-based international order is restored by way of an unambiguous Ukrainian victory, or we face a continent shaped by the law of the jungle. However, the reality is more complex. There may come a time when all parties to the conflict believe that the most likely place for achieving their core aims lies at the negotiating table and not on the battlefield. A formula may exist allowing all sides to save face, offering security guarantees to Ukraine and recognition of Russia’s security concerns. If a sufficient amount of trust can be restored between Ukraine, Russia and the West, then the process of gradually rebuilding European security can begin.